Originally published at: Антихрупкость | Насим Талеб — Рустам Агамалиев
Antifragile book 1
What is AF at the core
- AF get better after shocks, wherever mild resilient stays the same.
- It loves randomness, uncertainty, and crucially love of errors, a certain class of errors. What class of errors are useful?
- It helps understand the notion of fragility better.
- Fragility can be measured, but risk can’t. Outside the minds of “risk experts” and casino players. ![[экспертное мнение#^7f0692]]
- Everything that has more benefits from unexpected shocks is AF, the rest is fragile.
- Af is a groundwork of all innovation breakthroughs. It is highly dependent on tinkering, aggressive risk bearing than on formal education.
- Smoothness of memory, linear facts’ representation, omits understanding and role of randomness.
- Embrace the chaos and randomness, get yourself a semblance of order. [[Sonke Ahrens]] spoke about decentralized system of notes, which was similar to antifragile idea of randomness.
- Man-made systems of knowledge that has been created to promote more predictability instead of that make system more unstable and paradoxically even more unpredictable.
- Odds are rare events, that can’t be computed.
- AF gains from wild cards, prediction errors in the long run.
- Things that gain from randomness should rule the world, and it is the case.
- Academics write books, engineers tinker with stuff. Academics don’t know the process, thus sending the wrong message, leaving randomness and errors out of the picture.
- History of innovation must be refined with this concept in mind.
In short, AG can’t be measured, due to the high dependence on randomness and uncertainties.
- You can’t calculate the risk and probabilities of shocks and rare events, no matter how sophisticated we get.
- Memory can’t deal with unknowns.
- Unknown must never be considered non-existent. ![[Critical thinking#^3deaa8]]
- These delusions leads to overratioanlization, appearance of rationalists and limited rationalists. Who believe that the reasons behind things are accessible to them.
- This makes fragilista of them. Entity that is engaged in policies and actions that lead to small benefit, and possible severe and invisible side effects.
- Less is more, the constant message in problem-solving.
- Not only more, but also more effective.
- Complex doesn’t mean complicated. It doesn’t need intricate policies and regulations. That all leads only to a bigger number of chains, which in turn multiplicate mistakes.
Arabs on trenchant prose: No skill to understand, mastery to write.
- Heuristics are not perfect, expedient don’t forget that otherwise it turns to be dangerous.
- Things that make the whole system stronger, not safeguards but completely different in its core mechanisms.
- Imperfect or incomplete knowledge.
- The unknown.
- Dispersion of outcomes.
Taleb’s books are now finished essays or standalone works, they are nonoverlapping chapters that are constantly under construction. That looks into each of the aspects of the antifragility mechanisms of the system from above. Good reference for a book as digital garden and beginning.
- Doxastic commitment, is a class of beliefs that go beyond talk, and to which we are committed enough to take personal risk
- Math behind the idea. With various levels of reasoning.
Levels of fragility
- Mistakes are rare and large, hence irreversible.
- Just resilient.
- Mistakes are small and benign, reversible, quickly overcome. Rich with information.
- The bigger the society, the easier it to topple.
- Technology and sophistication, aversion to risk do not tolerate randomness and chance, thus do not immunize itself, from natural occurrences.
- Humans and society become intellectually blind, as Maria from color-blind room has been. We are AF-blind.
- Intellectuals tend to focus on negative responses from randomness. [The mistake of survived], better to look into positive, how the event made us stronger, what bigger harm it prevents, how it could be worse.
- The first step on the road from fragility to robustness to AF is mild harm, non-lethal or existential.
- That’s how we innovate. Necessity first, then go beyond the satisfaction and then from invention to invention.
- Excess energy release from a setback innovates!
- The reacher we become, the harder to live within our means. ![[Самое большое препятствие в развитии общества#Самое большое препятствие в развитии общества]]
- Noise produced by a person is a reverse of a chain food, the quietest is the most dangerous. Listen not to the loudest, but the least audible. ![[Essentialism The Disciplined Pursuit of Less#^d4ab1c]] ^ed987f
- Don’t overthink. More effort to control ideas and what we think about them changes the roles of the thinker with the idea itself.
- Ideas start controlling us.
- The more is said about the book, the better it is. Criticism is a hallmark of recognition.
- To estimate the quality of research, start by looking at those who scolds it.
- Do not control the reputation, you can sustain it, but not control. Information impossible to control.
- Governments and big corporation are unable to understand this simple rule, that controlling information is similar to controlling a white water river.
- When reputation is not at stake, or you just plainly do not care enough, only then you tend to have brilliant ideas.
Stress is knowledge (and knowledge is stress). The organic and mechanical.
- Complicated is not complex. They don’t have interdependencies.
- Complex systems are all about information. Casual opacity, hard to see the arrow from cause to consequence.
- In most everyday lives, casual methods of analyses are inapplicable. Logic, reasoning, writing analyses.
- The reason behind that is that we don’t know what has really happened.
- Complex systems are all about information. Casual opacity, hard to see the arrow from cause to consequence.
- Multiculturalism is a need of the modern time. We, those who live outside English-speaking countries, are blessed with the need to learn English. It brings joy of and exposure to different culture and we get pollinated by them.
- Goal driven attitude hurts more than decentralized systems. ^c6309a
- Something inside loves randomness and disorder. Entropy.
- Writing a book should be an adventure, the same principle can be applied to writing notes. You don’t know where it brings you and how far will you go.
- All life is random stimuli. But we substituted it with modern way of living, which excludes randomness and minimizes effects of game of chance.
- We get antifragility at a price of someone else’s fragility.
- Parts of inside system must be fragile in order for the whole system to be AF.
- Evolution works like this. Constantly tinkering and playing with our designs. But we reject this chance by artificially making us stronger against evolution, though inside we know that natural selection doesn’t work like this.
- We are prone to overlook the fact that organisms are complex, aside from outside level there is inside level, there are dependencies of one part of the system on the other.
- Organisms and systems need to die for nature to be AF. It’s merciless, selfish, opportunistic and ruthless.
Robert Trivers and his discovery of selfish gene.
- Mechanisms of evolution is randomness.
- Mutation of organisms.
- Change in environment.
- Every trial provides the information about what doesn’t work, which in turn brings closer to the solution. And of course there are plenty of discoveries along the path.
- Avoid at all cost mistakes that produce contagion and as a result drop the whole system. Banking e.g.
- To do that you have to allow small mistakes to roam the system and after resolving the stress, dissect it, look for new information. Enrich yourself with new piece of information.
- Losers don’t do it. They tend to look for excuses for the failure wherever they should search for knowledge.
- Continuous failure work for the benefit of the system, building resilience and immunity. The system where no mistakes are allowed won’t survive for long.
- Best knowledge, that of absence (what doesn’t work). It is frightening now to know and to be in control, but liberating in knowing that life is a wild card game. You won’t know what hand you are dealt with until the moment you need to play.
- ![[Harry Potter and the methods of rationality#^a81e1b]]
Antifragile book 7
- The road to success could be compared to choosing random paths on the way in a certain direction. Heroism along the road is not random.
- Pay attention to action, not the words.
- Again, a narrative of a doer and not a talker. ^00ce90
- Technology is enabling us to cowardice and opens the possibility of substitution of high quality with low quality action. [[Essentialism The Disciplined Pursuit of Less#^daf6f0]]
I think the downfall of current way of living will start with when a person will not be able to find much needed information.
Technology today drastically lowered the threshold for others to share their opinion what is important.
- High quality – take responsibility. Live under the bridge you’ve just built. Preferably with the whole family.
- Hammurabi’s code. A set of rules with harsh punishment. Such as an eye for an eye.
Example of modern times application: if a person votes for war, he must be invested in it personally. At least one descendant (child or grandchild) should be exposed to hardships and dangers of military actions on the frontline.
- Then we know how badly he wants this war to happen.
- Low quality – make a bet on a stock market. Roll the dice at the expense of a company or an unlucky taxpayer.
- Dignity is nothing, unless the price is paid.
- We should take risk speculatively. No opinion without risk worth anything.
- And risk itself should be considered without hope for some return. The greater the risk, the bigger the return.
- You can’t have an opinion if it’s not exposed to the risk.
- The knowledge world separate knowing something and doing something. And this leads to fragility of society.
- Let’s take a look at the knowledge economy. During recent geopolitical turmoil, it proves not sustainable.
- Resource economy, on the other hand, is quite opposite.
- You can’t think in the vacuum. It has to be done with provision at your disposal. And provision is acquired through labor.
- While some countries think, other countries do. And that’s the difference.
- Those who do something always end with better results.
- Thinking must be tunneled to doing, or better to reverse the sequence.
- Usually we stuck in thinking part and hope to outsmart hunger, thirst, and death itself.
- Thinking is just uttered or written words.
- Thus, victory in thinking goes not to the most correct one but to the one most vocal, charismatic and charming.
- The one producing scientifically sound papers. Not applicable things.
- Higher status, therefore exposure to risk, must be corresponding.
- Hannibal, first in the battle, last out of the battle.
[!NOTE] The past is fluid
Marred with selection biases and constantly revised memories.
- To check a person’s investments in a certain topic, look at his decisions.
- Doing or talking? Simple heuristics.
- Don’t ask an opinion, forecast, or recommendation. Just ask for a peek into their work.
- Consequences are the only things that matter. ^e4d30f
- Don’t ask for right or wrong. Look at what has happened after and what impact the action has on everything it is related to.
- Decisions are deeds.
- Forecasting are words.
[!NOTE] Sucker VS nonsuckers
Sucker try to win arguments, nonsuckers try to win.
- Taleb argues that philosophy and math do not need the connection with reality.
- [[Алексей Савватеев]] also said that mathematicians have direct line with the God.
- What he meant by that?